讲座内容：Stock market liberalization, investment banks, and analyst forecast quality: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China
讲座教师：王子田副教授 澳大利亚昆士兰大学
讲座时间：2019年12月11日上午9:00
学术座谈：2019年12月11日下午14:00
讲座地点：文泉楼南401会议室（学术讲座）、文泉楼南341东（学术交流）
主讲人简介：王子田2013年毕业于南洋理工大学，获会计博士学位。2013-2018任教于上海财经大学。论文发表于The Accounting Review,Journal of Accounting and Economics,Journal of the American Taxation Association。其中2012年于The Accounting Review发表的论文Selection models in accounting research在2012-2018年会计学top5期刊上所有发表的1820篇论文中被引用数排名第二（数据来源：Scopus）。
Abstract：Capitalizing on a quasi-natural experiment in China where certain investment banks become investible to the global market across different periods, we explore the role that stock market liberalization plays in shaping local analysts’ incentives to provide high quality forecasts. In a staggered difference-in-differences research design to improve identification, we find that analysts affiliated with liberalized banks (i.e., pilot analysts) significantly reduce the errors and bias in their earnings forecasts from the pre-liberalization period to the post-liberalization period, relative to non-pilot analysts whose employers remain under strict capital controls during the same timeframe. Consistent with expectations, this result is concentrated among local investment banks that are smaller, have higher existing institutional ownership, and have stronger tournament incentives. Additionally, we identify three mechanisms through which market liberalization affects the quality of analysts’ forecasts: pilot analysts (i) become more focused by reducing the size of their coverage portfolios; (ii) devote more effort to forecasting; and (iii) become subject to harsher career punishments for making deficient forecasts. Our analysis provides insight on the importance of financial globalization to the institutional environment of a country’s capital market.
